Tipping Points
Fragile regional systems with global consequences.
What are Tipping Points?
Tipping points are the thresholds for dangerous, and irreversible change in major parts of our Earth system, known as tipping elements. These elements include our planet’s ice masses, circulation systems, and specific ecosystems. Recent research has identified 9 major tipping elements with significant implications for the Earth's overall function and 7 regional tipping elements with substantial effects on human welfare or unique features of the Earth system.
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Why are Tipping Points important?
Crossing tipping points will lead to unprecedented and irreversible damage to our societies and our planet at a global scale. This includes significant sea level rise devastating major coastal cities, dieback of major forests including the Amazon, and disruption of natural rainfall cycles.
With current global warming levels, we are already within the uncertainty range for 5 tipping points. The Paris Agreement's target range of 1.5-2॰C of warming still puts us at risk of crossing 6 or more tipping points, including ice sheet collapse and widespread permafrost thaw.
Crossing these tipping points will change the world as we know it.
Urgent action is needed to mitigate climate change and other transgressions of Planetary Boundaries, and avoid crossing multiple tipping points.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS FOR GLOBAL WARMING
Between 2 - 3°C by 2100
Warmer than the Earth has been at anytime in the last 3 million years
What are the major dangers?
At 1.5-2°C, we are likely to face:
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Collapse of the Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets, leading to significant sea level rises globally in the next 100 years
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The death of tropical coral reefs around the world
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The thawing of permafrost in Russia, northern Europe and Canada resulting in large greenhouse gas emissions from decaying plant matter
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Collapse of the sea currents in the Labrador Sea near Greenland, which may destabilize the larger Atlantic current system (the AMOC)
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The abrupt loss of sea ice in Barents Sea, north of Norway and Russia
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Expanded list of tipping points, showing the estimated ranges of global heating that could cause these elements to tip.
Our Planet is losing buffering capacity
We are seeing serious cracks in the Earth's ability to to dampen and reduce shocks and stress
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The Earth has been very forgiving.
The carbon released by burning fossil fuels and deforestation, has been compensated by the oceans, land and atmosphere absorbing that carbon to stabilize the Earth system. 53% of the carbon dioxide released has been soaked up by land-based nature and the oceans. Only the remaining 47% in our atmosphere has caused the climate crisis so far.
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Now the ocean is sounding the alarm.
The ocean absorbs 90% of the heat caused by human-induced climate change. Since 2023, ocean temperatures have increased dramatically.
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And the world's forests are showing signs of reduced ability to absorb carbon.
Some studies are showing the Amazon is now a carbon source, not a carbon sink.
What links Planetary Boundaries and Tipping Points?
The scientific insights into the increasing risk of destabilizing tipping elements has helped define our Planetary Boundary thresholds. The Boundaries are set to prevent the crossing of tipping points.
The risk of crossing tipping points increases significantly between 1 and 2°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels — a temperature range that aligns with the zone of increased risk for the Climate Change Boundary. This overlap underscores the need for proactive measures to prevent irreversible harm to the Earth system, even amid uncertainties.
While avoiding the crossing of tipping points is crucial, the PBs framework also aims to ensure the overall stability and resilience of the Earth system, similar to how maintaining balanced health indicators is essential for overall human well-being.
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Example: The Amazon Rainforest
The risk of the Amazon rainforest tipping is heightened by anthropogenic climate change (resulting in more frequent and severe droughts), deforestation (which disrupts the essential moisture recycling), and the loss of biosphere integrity (a reduction in the variety of life forms, known as response diversity, that contribute to ecosystem resilience and functionality). Thus, further transgression of the respective boundaries significantly increases the risk of tipping the Amazon rainforest. Conversely, halting or even reducing boundary transgression can provide nonlinear benefits, where small changes in boundary adherence can lead to disproportionately large positive effects.
Other examples for the links between Planetary Boundaries and tipping points are:
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Climate Change
Most tipping elements are connected to climate change due to their significant impact on global temperatures, sea level rise, and weather patterns.
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Biosphere Integrity
Tipping elements like the Amazon rainforest, coral reefs, and boreal forests are crucial for maintaining biodiversity and ecological functions.
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Land-System Change
Deforestation and land degradation associated with tipping elements like the Amazon rainforest contribute to land-system changes.
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Ocean Acidification
Coral reefs are classified as a tipping element and are directly affected by increased temperatures and CO2 levels, which lower ocean pH and impact marine life.
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