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Citation: L. Caesar*, B. Sakschewski*, L. S. Andersen, T. Beringer, J. Braun, D. Dennis, D. Gerten, A. Heilemann, J. Kaiser, N.H. Kitzmann, S. Loriani, W. Lucht, J. Ludescher, M. Martin, S. Mathesius, A. Paolucci, S. te Wierik, J. Rockström, 2024, Planetary Health Check Report 2024. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

(*equal contributors to this work and designated as co-first authors)

Credits: Caesar and Sakschewski et al., 2024

All Diagrams from the Planetary Health Check 2024 Report

FIGURE 1 Planetary Health at a Glance

Just as a blood test provides insights into a human body's health and identifies areas of concern, this Planetary Health Check evaluates the 13 control variables across the 9 Planetary Boundary (PB) processes to report on Earth’s stability, resilience, and life-support functions — the overall health of our planet. The 2024 assessment shows that six of the nine PBs have been transgressed: Climate Change, Biosphere Integrity, Land System Change, Freshwater Change, Biogeochemical Flows, and the Introduction of Novel Entities. All of these show increasing trends, suggesting further transgression in the near future. Three PB processes remain within the Safe Operating Space: Ocean Acidification (increasing trend and close to PB), Atmospheric Aerosol Loading (decreasing global trend), and Stratospheric Ozone Depletion (no trend). On the top colorbar, a classic boxplot summarizes the distribution of all 13 control variable values at once. We make this the dynamic symbol of the Planetary Health Check.

FIGURE 2 State of the Planet.

The Planetary Boundaries (PBs) diagram visually represents the current status of the nine PB processes that define the safe limits for our planet's health. Each process is quantified by one or more control variables based on observational data, model simulations and expert opinions. The current state of each control variable is visualized by the length of the wedge in the diagram, showing whether it is within the Safe Operating Space or beyond its PB (indicating PB transgression). Key visual markers are the PB (dark green circle) and the high-risk line (thin orange circle). The GREEN area represents the Safe Operating Space that provides a high chance of keeping the boundary process in a healthy state that can support good, liveable conditions on Earth — as long as the control variable’s status stays within the PB (dark green circle). To account for the degree of transgression (the risk level) along with uncertainties arising from limitations in data availability, model capabilities, and current understanding of Earth system processes, the range beyond the PB is split into two zones: The YELLOW to ORANGE zone indicates a Zone of Increasing Risk, where the PB in question has been surpassed, but the current status of the control variable has not yet reached the High Risk Zone. Specifically, the likelihood for damage increases as the boundary transgression continues, but it is not yet possible to give a precise description of this increasing risk. The RED to PURPLE zone illustrates a High Risk Zone, for example, a high probability of destabilizing the Earth system due to a very large boundary transgression. The potential top-level damage resulting from such a transgression involves losing a Holocene-like Earth system state or substantially eroding Earth system resilience, potentially causing regional to global regime shifts or crossing tipping points. At a lower level, this damage involves destabilizing specific PB processes and undermining PB functions across regional to global scales. For some PB processes, the Zone of Increasing Risk has either not been quantitatively defined (Introduction of Novel Entities), current values remain uncertain (Change in Biosphere Integrity), or current “safe” conditions may have to be re-evaluated considering the latest scientific insights (Ocean Acidification). To emphasize this uncertainty, the outer edges of the corresponding wedges are blurred. Nevertheless, existing knowledge is sufficient to place the current values of these control variables for Introduction of Novel Entities and Change in Biosphere Integrity in the High Risk Zone.

FIGURE 4 Humanity's Journey on Earth - Human Population Size and Global Temperature from 500,000 Years BP Until 2100.

This figure is a composite of different data sets, including paleo data estimates, recent measurements, and future projections. Data from: Jouzel et al. 2007, Masson-Delmotte et al. 2010, Morice et al. 2021, Osborn and Jones 2014, CRU 2024, IPCC Summary for Policymakers 2021, Fyfe et al. 2024, Ritchie et al. 2024, Sjödin et al. 2012, UN World Population Prospects 2022. Key takeaway: For over 10,000 years, humanity lived in a very stable climatic period (the green corridor) in which it evolved and adapted its technologies and cultures. By crossing several Planetary Boundaries, including the one for Climate Change, this period has ended, and we are entering a new and dangerous terrain in which a still-growing world population must thrive.

FIGURE 5 These graphs illustrate the dramatic socio-economic and Earth system trends in recent decades

The left-hand side highlights the exponential rise in human activities, including population growth, real GDP, and energy use. The right-hand side reveals the corresponding impact on Earth system indicators such as carbon dioxide levels, surface temperature, and ocean acidification. The Anthropocene began with the "Great Acceleration" in the 1950s when these parameters of environmental change shifted from gradual, linear trends to rapid, exponential ones. These trends underscore the urgency of respecting Planetary Boundaries (PBs) to prevent further ecological degradation and ensure a sustainable future for a global population projected to reach 9–9.5 billion by 2050. Re-entering the Safe Operating Space is crucial for mitigating the rising pressures on Earth's resilience, which already shows signs of being overwhelmed. Image adapted by Globaïa after Steffen et al., 2015.1 © 2015 by the Author(s). Reprinted by Permission of SAGE Publications.

FIGURE 6 The Complex Net of Planetary Boundary Processes

The diagram shows the most significant and certain interconnections between Planetary Boundary (PB) processes and the most important drivers of transgression. Colored arrows indicate a connection between two PB processes, with the color denoting the source PB process. The width of the arrow represents the estimated relative strength of the connection, while the line style (solid, dashed, dotted) indicates the nature of the connection (positive, negative, or both). Numbers associated with PB processes denote the most important drivers of PB transgression, as defined above. These drivers can be linked to multiple boundaries simultaneously. For a tabular overview of the considered PB connections, see Supplementary Material, Table 1. Key takeaway: The interconnections between PBs are multidirectional and vary in strength. Addressing one issue often requires addressing them all. For example, reducing global warming to 1.5°C is linked to managing all PB processes together. When this is done correctly, what initially seems like a challenging task can lead to significant benefits across different issues.

FIGURE 7 Tipping Points in Ecological Systems

This image illustrates how ecological systems can shift between stable states, like rainforests and savannas. (A) Feedback mechanisms maintain the system in stable states, (e.g., moisture recycling in rainforests, fire in savannas). (B) However, increasing stress, such as deforestation, can push the system toward a tipping point, leading to an irreversible shift from one stable state to another, like from a rainforest to a savanna.

FIGURE 8 Planetary Boundary Processes and Their Tipping Points

This figure represents the first effort to link different categories of tipping systems with Planetary Boundary (PB) processes. The categories identified in the Global Tipping Points Report were matched with PB processes if the PB control variables or their drivers of transgression are logically connected to the drivers of tipping systems (Table 3, pg. 82-83). The potential impact of tipping systems on PBs is not documented here.

FIGURE 9 Global Map of Changes in Energy Balance

This map shows the change in the "Net top of the atmosphere radiative forcing" by comparing two solar cycles, each lasting 11 years, from 2002–2012 (11 years of measurements at the beginning of the time series) and 2013–2023 (the last 11 years of measurements) in W m⁻² (watts per square meter). In contrast to Fig. 11 which includes only anthropogenic changes, this shows the actual measured changes in the energy flux at the top of the atmosphere (e.g., both anthropogenic and natural factors). The map highlights areas where the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere has either increased or decreased. Regions with positive values (shades of red) indicate an increase in radiative forcing, suggesting more energy is being absorbed than emitted, potentially leading to warming. Data from Loeb et al., 2018. Key takeaway: The regional patterns of changes in energy balance over the last 20 years show varied results, but overall, a general warming trend is evident.

FIGURE 10 The Rise of CO₂

This figure shows the annual global mean of atmospheric CO₂ concentration from 1979-2023, and the marginally different dataset of CO₂ concentration as measured at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, which integrates data over a longer timespan (from 1959-2023). The red line shows the PB of 350 ppm, while the green line represents the pre-industrial baseline of 280 ppm. CO₂ concentrations at Mauna Loa differ slightly from the global mean CO₂ value (with the former being approximately 2 ppm above the latter for recent years). Data from Lan et al., 2024⁸² and Lan & Keeling, 2024. Key takeaway: Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have been continuously rising since industrialization and are now higher than at any time in the last 15 million years.

FIGURE 11 Disturbance of Our Planet’s Energy Balance

The control variable "Annual global mean of net top-of-atmosphere anthropogenic radiative forcing" is graphed from 1890 to 2023 (time series starts in 1750). This shows the change in energy flux at the top of the atmosphere due to human activities, compared to the pre-industrial baseline. The red line shows the Planetary Boundary of +1 W m⁻² (watts per square meter), while the green line represents the Holocene baseline of around 0 W m⁻². Data from Forster et al., 2023. Key takeaway: Since the onset of the Anthropocene, global TOA (Top of Atmosphere) anthropogenic radiative forcing has shown a steep and continuing rise.

FIGURE 12 Global Risk Map of the Change in Biosphere Integrity Boundary Transgression – HANPP

Transgression is based on the HANPP control variable, with values ranging from within the Safe Operating Space (green) to the Zone of Increasing Risk (orange), and extending to the High Risk Zone (red/purple), as illustrated in Fig. 2. All values shown on the map refer to the year 2010. Data from Kastner et al. 2022. Key takeaway: Most boundary transgressions occur in large, continuous regions with high land-use intensity. In contrast, areas in regions without transgressions, such as the Amazon, the Congo Basin, and boreal forests, are primarily natural or semi-natural. Areas in Zones of Increasing Risk are not yet stable and are likely to soon exceed the PB due to ongoing land-use expansion, underscoring humanity's current inability to manage land use within safe limits.

FIGURE 13 Species Extinctions Accelerating Globally

Cumulative number of genera extinctions per century in different classes of vertebrates. This graph shows that at least 73 genera have become extinct over the last 500 years. Similar estimates for mammals, birds, and fish indicate a total extinction rate of up to 100 E/MSY. Data from Ceballos and Ehrlich, 2023. Key takeaway: The significant and steadily increasing loss of global biodiversity raises concerns that Earth’s biosphere is losing resilience, adaptability and hence its ability to buffer against the different PB processes.

FIGURE 14 The Energy We Take From Nature and Use for Our Purposes

The plot displays the control variable "Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP),” expressed as the percentage of the potential net primary productivity (NPP) of the year 1910. The time series is presented as 10-20 year means and covers the period from 1910 to 2010. The 2020 estimate of 30% is based on an analysis from Richardson et al., 2023. The red line shows the Planetary Boundary of about 10%, while the green line represents the baseline of around 1.9%. Based on data from Kastner et al. 2022. Key takeaway: The current HANPP has exceeded the precautionary Planetary Boundary. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including unsustainable consumption patterns, increasing demands, and inefficient land-use practices, which further accelerate land-use change and push the system deeper into the Zone of Increasing Risk.

FIGURE 15 Change in Land Plant Energy Used by Humanity

Total change in the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in 2010 compared to (minus) the HANPP in 1910, both expressed as a percentage of the potential (natural) NPP in 1910. A change from 10% to 30% HANPP would be indicated by a value of +20%. Shades of red indicate a HANPP increase and shades of blue indicate a decrease. Data from Kastner et al., 2022. Key takeaway: The spatiotemporal patterns of HANPP changes were historically driven by land-use expansion and intensification. HANPP increased globally, except in parts of Eurasia where HANPP values were already very high and have recently shown a slight decrease.

FIGURE 16 Global Risk Map of the Land System Change Boundary Transgression - Forest Area

Transgression is shown for the major contiguous forest biomes as defined in Steffen et al., 2015. Transgression is based on the control variable, forest area, with values potentially ranging from within the Safe Operating Space (green) to the Zone of Increasing Risk (orange), and extending to the High Risk Zone (red/purple), as illustrated in Fig. 2. Lighter shades of a color indicate areas that were originally covered with forest but are now predominantly deforested. Based on data from Copernicus and Ramankutty & Foley, 1999. Key takeaway: The large continuous forest biomes of the Earth have all transgressed the Planetary Boundary but show varying degrees of transgression.

FIGURE 17 Global Forest Decline

Annual mean forest cover, expressed as a percentage of potential forest cover, globally and for three different biomes (temperate, boreal and tropical) between 1992 and 2022. Red lines show the Planetary Boundaries of 75%, 50%, 85% and 85% for global, temperate, boreal and tropical forests respectively, while the green line always represents the baseline of 100% potential forest cover. Data from Copernicus, 2019 and Ramankutty and Foley, 1999. Key takeaway: As a result of land-use and, increasingly, climate change, global and regional forests have been steadily declining over the last few decades across all major forest biomes. Most regions are already significantly below their regional boundaries, while some areas, such as temperate and tropical America, have just recently surpassed them.

FIGURE 18 Global Map of Recent Forest Changes

Colors indicate absolute changes in the percentage of forest cover between 1992 and 2022, with shades of blue representing an increase in forest cover and shades of red a decrease in forest cover (e.g., a change from 60% to 50% forest cover would be indicated by a value of -10%). Areas that had either no forest cover in both 1992 and 2022 or show no change in forest cover are shown in white. Data from Copernicus, 2019. Key takeaway: Spatially resolved trends between 1992 and 2022 (the time span of the data set) show a heterogeneous pattern of forest loss and gain across the globe. Continuous pristine forests in the tropics and boreal zones, in particular, have suffered losses of primary forest, while temperate forests, often reflecting managed forestry, have mostly suffered from climate change impacts.

FIGURE 19 Global Map of Increases in Dry and Wet Episodes for Blue Water

This map shows the significant increases in dry and wet local deviation frequency for streamflow. Changes in the frequency of local deviations are computed by comparing deviations during 1976-2005 against 1691-1860. The changes are classified as (i) minor changes (wet or dry), (ii) major changes (wet or dry), and (iii) changes at a location where both wet and dry changes occurred, irrespective of whether they are minor or major. Data from Porkka et al 2024. Key takeaway: The increase in both wet and dry extremes in streamflow deviations across large parts of the world suggests increasing variability and instability in global freshwater systems.

FIGURE 20 Disturbance of Earth’s Freshwater Systems (I) - Blue Water

This figure shows the alteration of blue water flows (river, lake, and reservoir water flows) from 1890 to 2005, compared to a pre-industrial baseline (1691-1860), with the time series starting in 1691. Alteration is expressed as a percentage of land area showing a significant change compared to the baseline. The blue line shows the percentage of land area exhibiting local deviations in blue water. The red line shows the Planetary Boundary of 10.2%, while the green line represents the pre-industrial baseline of 9.4%. Data from Porkka et al 2024. Key takeaway: Local stream flow deviations have almost doubled since the late 19th century, already surpassing the Planetary Boundary at the beginning of the 20th century and continuing to rise since then.

FIGURE 21 Disturbance of Earth’s Freshwater Systems (II) - Green Water

This figure shows the alteration of green water flows (soil moisture in the root zone) from 1890 to 2005, compared to a pre-industrial baseline (1691-1860), with the time series starting in 1691. Alteration is expressed as a percentage of land area showing a significant change compared to the baseline. The blue line shows the percentage of land area exhibiting local deviations in green water. The red line shows the Planetary Boundary of 11.1%, while the green line represents the pre-industrial baseline of 9.8%. Data from Porkka et al 2024. Key takeaway: Local soil moisture deviations have significantly increased since the late 19th century, surpassing the PB around 1930 and continuing to rise since then.

FIGURE 22 Global Map of Increases in Dry and Wet Episodes for Green Water

This map shows the significant increases in dry and wet local deviation frequency for soil moisture. Changes in the frequency of local deviations are computed by comparing deviations during 1976-2005 against 1691-1860. The changes are classified as (i) minor changes (wet or dry), (ii) major changes (wet or dry), and (iii) changes at a location where both wet and dry changes occurred, irrespective of whether they are minor or major. Data from Porkka et al 2024. Key takeaway: The increase in both wet and dry extremes in soil moisture deviations indicates growing variability and instability within global green water systems (water stored in soils and available for use by plants).

FIGURE 23 Global Risk Map of the Biogeochemical Cycles Boundary Transgression - Phosphorus Cycle

The regional boundary status is calculated based on agricultural phosphorus fertilizer use in 2013 (see Supplementary Material). Values range from within the Safe Operating Space (green) to the Zone of Increasing Risk (orange), and extend to the High Risk Zone (red/purple), as illustrated in Fig. 2. The regional boundaries were preliminarily derived from the global boundaries, assuming a uniform rate of fertilizer application on cropland. Regional pollution limits may deviate significantly from these boundaries. Based on data from Lu and Tian, 2017. Key takeaway: Phosphorous cycle transgression is significant in parts of North and South America, Europe, and Asia, which leads to water pollution, eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and "dead zones" in both coastal and freshwater ecosystems. This underscores the urgent need for better phosphorus management.

FIGURE 24 Rising Phosphorus Inputs for Agriculture

This graph shows the mean global phosphorus use rate on all croplands (in g P m⁻² cropland year⁻¹, e.g., grams of phosphorus per square meter of cropland per year, see Supplementary Material) from 1961 to 2013. Data from Lu and Tian, 2017. Key takeaway: The rise in phosphorus use in agriculture is driving harmful algal and cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater systems, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable phosphorus management.

FIGURE 25 Global Map of Change in Phosphorus Use Rate for Agriculture

The total difference of phosphorus use rates (in g P m⁻² cropland year⁻¹, e.g., grams of phosphorus per square meter of cropland per year) calculated as the difference between the rates during the period 2009-2013 (last 5 years of data set) and the period 1961-1965 (first 5 years of data set). Shades of red indicate an increase in phosphorus use, while shades of blue indicate a decrease. Data from Lu and Tian, 2017. Key takeaway: Strong increases in phosphorus use rates are observed, particularly in parts of South America, India, China, and Southeast Asia. In contrast, parts of Europe show a notable reduction in phosphorus use over the same period, likely due to improved agricultural practices and regulations. This map highlights the growing use of phosphorus in developing regions, raising concerns about nutrient runoff and its environmental impacts, especially in coastal and freshwater systems.

FIGURE 26 Global Risk Map of the Biogeochemical Cycles Boundary Transgression - Nitrogen Cycle

The preliminary regional boundary status is calculated based on agricultural nitrogen surplus in the year 2010 (see Supplementary Material) and estimates of regional surplus boundaries. The assessment aligns with the suggestion for an enhanced control variable definition24 that is more closely related to nitrogen losses to the environment (nitrogen surplus instead of input). Values range from within the Safe Operating Space (green; no exceedance of regional surplus boundaries) to the Zone of Increasing Risk (orange), and extend to the High Risk Zone (red/purple), as illustrated in Fig. 2. Note that the threshold between the Zone of Increasing Risk and the High Risk Zone is a preliminary estimate and needs further refinement. Based on data from Schulte-Uebbing et al. 2022.

FIGURE 27 Rising Nitrogen Inputs for Agriculture

This graph shows the mean global nitrogen use rate on all croplands (in g N m⁻² cropland year⁻¹, e.g., grams of nitrogen per square meter of cropland per year, see Supplementary Material) from 1961 to 2013. Data from Lu and Tian, 2017. Key takeaway: The steady increase in nitrogen use over the past decades reflects the growing use of nitrogen fertilizers to meet the demands of increasing agricultural production.

FIGURE 28 Global Map of Change in Nitrogen Use Rate for Agriculture Cycle

The total difference of nitrogen use rates (in g N m⁻² cropland year⁻¹, e.g., grams of nitrogen per square meter cropland per year) calculated as the difference between the rates during the period 2009-2013 (last 5 years of data set) and the period 1961-1965 (first 5 years of data set). Data from Lu and Tian, 2017. Key takeaway: The map highlights a global increase in nitrogen use, particularly in developing regions, raising concerns about environmental impacts and the need for sustainable agricultural practices.

FIGURE 29 Global Map of Ocean Acidification Indicator - Aragonite Saturation State Change

This map shows trends in the surface aragonite saturation state by comparing the mean values for the years 1982-1986 (the first 5 years of available data) with those for 2018-2022 (the last 5 years of available data). The changes are expressed as a percentage (e.g., a change from 3.0 to 2.7 would be indicated as -10%). Data from Gregor & Gruber, 2020 (v2023). Key takeaway: Ocean acidification is affecting oceans worldwide, with the effects being most pronounced in the Southern Ocean and the Arctic Ocean. Some areas have already become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, posing a risk to vulnerable calcifying organisms that play an important role in the food web.

FIGURE 30 Ocean Acidification Approaching its Boundary

Shown are two datasets for the control variable "Global mean aragonite saturation state," both illustrating how the Ocean Acidification PB is nearing its limit. Although the datasets use different maximum water depths and thus indicate slightly different values, they show the same overall trend. The red line represents the Planetary Boundary of 2.75, while the green line indicates the pre-industrial baseline of 3.44. Data from Gregor & Gruber, 2020 (v2023) and Jiang et al., 2015. Key takeaway: Ocean acidification is approaching its PB, with the surface aragonite saturation state declining significantly towards the PB, posing a growing threat to marine ecosystems.

FIGURE 31 Global Map of Recent Change in Aerosol Loading

This map shows the absolute change in aerosol optical depth (AOD), calculated as the difference between AOD during 2019-2023 (the last 5 years of this dataset) and 2003-2007 (the first 5 years of this dataset). For example, a change from 0.2 to 0.15 AOD would be indicated by a value of -0.05. Areas where the AOD has increased are shown in shades of red, while areas where it has decreased are shown in shades of blue. Data from CAMS EAC4. Key takeaway: Although AOD is decreasing globally, the varied patterns — with some regions seeing increases — indicate a complex mix of local factors, such as industrial emissions, deforestation, and climate change-driven events like wildfires.

FIGURE 32 Bridging the Divide: Declining Interhemispheric Difference in Aerosol Loading

This chart shows the 5-year running mean of the difference in aerosol optical depth (AOD) between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, calculated by averaging data from 60° north to 60° south for the period from 2003 to 2023. The red line represents the Planetary Boundary of 0.1, while the green line indicates the baseline of 0.04. Data from CAMS EAC4. Key takeaway: The difference in aerosol optical depth between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres has been decreasing from 2006 to 2023, indicating that we are moving further into the Safe Operating Space.

FIGURE 33 Global Map of Recent Ozone Layer Changes

This map shows the relative change in the stratospheric ozone concentration between 1979-1989 (the first 11-year cycle of this dataset) and 2012-2022 (the last 11-year cycle of this dataset). For example, a change from 260 DU to 273 DU would be indicated by a value of +5%. Areas where total ozone has increased are shown in shades of blue, while areas where it has decreased are shown in shades of red. Data from MSR 2020. Key takeaway: Regional changes in stratospheric ozone concentration between 1979-1989 and 2012-2022 show mixed trends, with increases in some regions and decreases in others, while the persistent Antarctic ozone hole highlights ongoing recovery challenges.

FIGURE 34 Ozone Layer Recovery: A Success Story

This chart displays the 11-year mean of the control variable “global mean stratospheric ozone concentration” measured in Dobson Units (DU) for the period from 1979 to 2022. The red line shows the Planetary Boundary of about 277 DU, while the green line represents the baseline of 292 DU (values updated with respect to Richardson et al., 2023⁴ and IPCC, 2023¹⁴⁵). Data from MSR 2020. Key takeaway: While the global stratospheric ozone layer has recovered since the mid-1990s after a significant decline, this recovery may have plateaued in recent years.

FIGURE 35 From Conception to Contamination: The Rise of Novel Entities

This chart illustrates the relative growth of various categories of novel entities and key chemicals from 2000 to 2017, a period with sufficient comparable data. The data is normalized to the year 2000. Data from Persson et al., 2022. Key takeaway: Chemical production has steadily increased from 2000 to 2017, raising concerns about environmental contamination and public health. Novel entities, such as plastics, pesticides, industrial chemicals, and antibiotics, contribute to pollution, bioaccumulation, ecosystem disruption, antibiotic resistance, and health issues like cancer and hormonal imbalances. With tens of thousands of man-made chemicals in the world, most of which have not been studied for safety, the risks are significant.

FIGURE 36 Global Map of Countries that Declared Drought Emergencies in 2022-2023

During 2022-2023, widespread drought conditions affected various regions, including North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa, and were often accompanied by major wildfires. This underscores the severe impact of prolonged dry conditions on different parts of the world. Adapted from UNCCD.

FIGURE 37 More Severe and More Likely - Extreme Weather Events Under Human-Induced Climate Change

An analysis of over 170 studies compiled by Nature and CarbonBrief shows that human-induced climate change has increased both the likelihood and severity of extreme weather events. Adapted from Schiermeier, 2018.148 Reproduced with permission from Springer Nature. For an extensive and up-to-date overview of these numbers, refer to the latest attribution map of Carbon Brief (v2023).

FIGURE 38 The Necessary Food System Overhaul for a 10 Billion-Person World Within the Safe Operating Space

This chart compares the number of people worldwide who can receive an average of 2,355 calories per day (including sufficient protein) under current farming practices (left side) versus with improved farming techniques, expanded farmland opportunities, and more sustainable consumption within safe levels (right side). Adapted from Gerten et al., 2020.